• Reviewing the top stocks in 2024

• Reviewing my trades so far

• What to expect going forwards

Let’s get into it:

General Market Review

SPY

Impressive bounce back this week as we continue to consolidate under highs established in late 2021. What I’m interested in now is do we churn at highs or can we consolidate next couple of weeks and push out to ATHs.

QQQ

Amazing strength out of tech over past couple of weeks. Hard to not get bulled up as we close above highs established in late 2021. I have the same question here as I do with SPY — are we going to consolidate next couple of weeks and push higher or are we going to churn and find sellers? We’ll see.

IWM

One thing I will say though is that it’ll be tough to have a tradeable run at ATHs if the IWM doesn’t start seeing money flow in. Last two weeks’ volume ran high as we pull back from the $200 whole number… I’ve always made the best progress when this was the leading index/ETF, for what that’s worth 😉

Reviewing Trades So Far in 2024

I’ve made two trades so far this year. They are the following:

Read more

• Pre & Post Market Routines

• January’s Position Sizing

Let’s dive in:

Over the past couple of years, I’ve struggled to find my rhythm to start the new year.

Here’s why (and maybe you can relate to some of these issues, too):

• Oversizing

• Too aggressive

• Too passive (yes, the exact opposite of the issue above)

So, after some deep reflection, here’s what I’m committing to start 2024 to find my rhythm:

1. Simple Pre & Post Market Routines

It’s easy to feel like you have to conquer the world when the new year starts. I’ve found myself completing multi-hour routines on a daily basis in 2022 and 2023, only to find myself burnt out by the end of the month.

This year is going to be different. I’ll be executing a…

• 30 minute premarket routine

• 30 minute postmarket routine

…and as a new addition, I will be journalling my thoughts throughout the day to make the post market routine quicker.

I’ve covered my premarket journalling questions in-depth here.

I’ve covered my postmarket scans, journalling questions, and everything else here.

2. Reduced Sizing

I want to ensure I start the year with some decent trades under my belt, not worrying about the % return on the account but more so see some wins stack up.

To do this, I’ve recognized lowering my sizing allows me to do 2 really effective things for my trading:

• Reduce hesitation around execution

• Reduce worry about starting the year in a deep draw down

So, I’ll be using max 10% of my account per trade to start the new year. I’ll also be risking 0.25-0.5% equity per trade, ensuring I won’t start too far in a hole if I lose on 3 trades straight.

See an A+ setup, take an A+ setup. Live with the results.

That’s my motto for January of 2024.

Side note: I’m a big sports fanatic, specifically basketball. When jump shooters are struggling and looking to find their rhythm, often times getting to the free throw line or an easy layup sparks some momentum. After seeing the ball go through the basket, they build rhythm to shoot confidently and get into a flow state. This is exactly what reducing my sizing will allow me to do.

Actionable Takeaways To Help You Start 2024 In Rhythm

1. Run simple pre and post market routines.

2. Reduce position sizing to max 10% equity for the entirety of January.

3. Commit to only trading A+ setups.

I’m excited to see the results of these changes after just one month.

If you struggle to start the new year, give these a try and let me know how they go for ya.

Talk soon,

Greg

Other resources to study:

2020 Best Charts: https://gregduncan.gumroad.com/l/wmfsd

2021 Best Charts: https://gregduncan.gumroad.com/l/2021

2022 Best Charts: https://gregduncan.gumroad.com/l/2022

Earnings Gap Up Mastery Free Email Course: https://upsideunlimited.com/earnings-gap-course

Consider Becoming A Paid Upside Unlimited Subscriber: https://upsideunlimited.com/sub

• Creating A Trading Blueprint In The Eyes Of A Market Wizard

• 5 Key Pillars To Cover In A Trading Blueprint

• My Own Blueprint With The HVC System

Let’s dive in ↓

“If you fail to plan, you are planning to fail.” - Oliver Kell

When a US Investing Champion speaks, I listen. A little over two weeks ago, USIC Record Holder Oliver Kell held a webinar covering his 10 Trading Principles.

I’ve distilled my takeaways on each of the principles he shared in a thread on X here, but one topic I wanted to take a deeper look at today was how important having a trading blueprint is and how to create one of your own.

Here’s Oliver talking about just that:

What Is A Trading Blueprint & How Do I Create One?

I view a trading blueprint as my personal roadmap in the market. It's a single sheet of paper, but it's as vital as any trading tool I use. It's about distilling complex strategies into a simple, actionable plan & then getting out of the way.

To create your own trading blueprint, you start by defining your trading. It's a process of introspection and analysis.

Here's how you can tackle it:

1. Your Edge: This is the repeatable pattern that comes up on your screens, catches your eye, and leads to a trade having a higher chance of a particular outcome compared to another.

2. Your Entry Tactics: Entry tactics happen AFTER you’ve identified your edge on the charts. Where are you entering specifically? What other indicators are factoring in to your decision? What should you be looking for upon entry?

3. Your Risk Management Plan: What are your rules regarding position sizing? Max risk allowed on a trade? Total drawdown allowed to the account? Max Open Risk? Use of margin? All of these questions need to be clearly laid out so there’s no ambiguity when going to enter and exit trades. It's about defining your risk before you enter a trade, not after.

4. General Market Environment Factors: Your strategy might be brilliant on paper, but how does it fare in different market conditions? Bull markets, bear markets, or choppy sideways movement – your blueprint should adapt to the environment or specify when to stay on the sidelines.

5. Circuit Breakers To Deal With Psychology: Trading is as much a mental game as it is a strategic one. Here, list the 'circuit breakers' you'll have in place to prevent emotional decisions. This could include daily loss limits, cool-off periods, or specific actions you'll take if you notice you're trading based on emotion rather than your plan.

My Own Personal Trading Blueprint

After watching Oliver talk about the importance of a trading blueprint, I sat down and wrote out each piece of my own Earnings Gap Up strategy.

Let’s take a quick look at each part:

My Edge

These are the same high volume characteristics I’ve talked about so many times over the past couple of months.

• High Volume Edge (Ever, Since IPO, In 1 Year, In Recent Quarter)

• Price % Change On Gap Up > 10% (the higher the better)

• Daily Closing Range > 50% (the higher the better)

The best part about this edge is I can create simple scans to catch and spot these moves, over and over again.

My Entry Tactics

This is the one piece of the strategy that I know will change and morph over time. I’m currently studying a couple of other ways to enter these trades to best skew the Risk:Reward ratio in my favor. But, in its current state, here are the key entry tactics:

• Day 1: 2min/5min ORB along with VWAP

• Day 2 & Beyond: High Volume Close, Volume Support, Whole Number Support

• Price Consolidations After Gaps: Inside Days below HVC, Support At Key Moving Averages (4EMA, 10EMA, 20EMA)

Again, I’m trying to keep it as simple as possible while also giving myself enough opportunity to catch major winners of many shapes and sizes within the HVC edge.

My Risk Management Plan & Circuit Breakers

I’ve combined two parts here — Risk Management & Circuit Breakers.

Risk Management:

• Position Sizing & Fixed Loss Parameters

• Profit Taking Rules On Strength

Circuit Breakers:

• 3 Strike Rule

• 5% Drawdown Rule

• Up 3% Equity Or More In A Single Session

• Overnight Gap Down Rule

These are key points of emphasis to keep myself in the game for the long term.

If there’s interest, I can dive into the specifics of the circuit breakers I’ve developed (just reply or comment letting me know if this is something that interests you)…

General Market Environment Plan

As I continue to study and refine my edge, I’ve realized that the best markets to trade Earnings Gap Ups are ones that are just coming out of correction, in which there is an explosion of breadth higher as the market reclaims key moving averages. These MAs are:

• SPY & QQQ > 10 & 20EMAs

I’ve also recognized how correlated my positive performance is to positive action in the IWM. When this group of stocks does well, my strategy tends to perform positively.

Again, these are all findings that I will refine and hone in on as I gain more experience implementing what’s on the paper in real-time.

Bringing It All Together:

Your blueprint should be a living document, adjusting as you learn and grow as a trader. It's not about having all the answers right now, but about starting with a solid foundation that you can build upon.

I’m sure what I’ve written will change as I continue to study and refine my edge/entry tactics.

By crafting a personal trading blueprint, you’re not just planning trades, you're planning a trading career. It's a commitment to discipline, continuous learning, and respecting the markets.

And, when you really get into it, maybe you’ll add some key parameters around the daily/weekly routines you have in the market, how you’ll manage your time doing so, and where post trade analysis fits into your schedule.

Answering all of the above may not fit in 1 sheet exactly like Oliver said, but it definitely puts you ahead of 99% of others who don’t have a trading blueprint.

I hope you find some time and commit to this exercise before 2024 starts.

Greg

Other resources to study:

2020 Best Charts: https://gregduncan.gumroad.com/l/wmfsd

2021 Best Charts: https://gregduncan.gumroad.com/l/2021

2022 Best Charts: https://gregduncan.gumroad.com/l/2022

Earnings Gap Up Mastery Free Email Course: https://upsideunlimited.com/earnings-gap-course

Consider Becoming A Paid Upside Unlimited Subscriber: https://upsideunlimited.com/sub

• GPS annotated chart

• GPS in-depth trade review write up

• GPS in-depth trade review video walkthrough

Let’s dive in:

GPS Annotated Charts

Daily Chart:

15 minute chart on entry:

Note: The above image shows 5 separate sessions. The first session is gap up day, and the HVC is plotted on the gap day’s close. The following 4 sessions are shown as well to help you gauge price action in the day’s following. It’s not ever easy!

Deeper Thoughts On Buying/Selling GPS

This was a great trade for me — I wish they all worked like this! Here’s what I’ve learned from studying this trade back over the past couple of days:

1. Buying techniques (VWAP, price edge, HVC)

When trading the HVC, having multiple buy techniques allows you to enter at different points throughout the session, and can make managing risk much easier in real time.

Using the 15min chart above, we can see price hold volume support area at 17.5, and then quickly reclaim VWAP + HVC. Coupling the VWAP, as well as volume support, with the traditional HVC entry made this trade about as good as it’s going to get.

2. Selling techniques

Read more

• High Volume Close Refresher

• 2 Sell Rules On Weakness

• 3 Sell Rules On Strength

• 40+ Names To Study From 2023

Let’s dive in:

Two weeks ago, I covered the High Volume Close setup in great detail in a free newsletter edition. You can read that here. Since publishing, I’ve gotten a ton of questions about specific sell rules — whether this be on strength or on weakness.

I’ll answer all of those today, but first I want to start with a quick refresher on the High Volume Close (HVC) setup. The basic idea is this:

When names report good earnings, institutions forget about subtle accumulation. They gap price up on huge volume, giving us retail traders an incredible opportunity to ride along strong momentum bursts.

Learning how to…

1. Spot/Scan

2. Enter

3. Exit*

…these names will have a major impact on your profitability long term.

*This week’s focus will be on sell rules. Let’s dive in:

High Volume Close | Sell Rules

Whenever trading a setup, it’s best practice to have sell rules on both strength and weakness.

Having sell rules on strength allows you to:

i) create consistent habits around taking profits

ii) ensure gains never turn to losses

iii) allow compounding to work

On the other hand, weakness sell rules allow you to:

i) manage risk properly

ii) position size correctly

Let’s start with selling on weakness, diving into the two approaches I’ve used to manage risk with the HVC setup.

Selling The HVC On Weakness

There are two scenarios to keep in mind when setting stop losses using the High Volume Close.

Scenario #1: Prior Intraday Pattern

This is the most accurate and consistent way to manage risk with the HVC setup. All it takes is study of the Day 1 gap day’s price action. Let’s show some examples:

Example #1: DKNG

In the bottom panel, I’ve highlighted a consolidation on the 15min chart within the Day 1 gap up price action. I’ve also plotted the HVC so you can see what intraday action around a important support level is supposed to look like.

Identifying this spot on the Day 1 price action allowed me to enter DKNG with less than 3% risk, able to capture over a 15% upside gain. This is about a 5R trade!

Example #2: SHOP

In the bottom panel, I’ve highlighted another consolidation within SHOP’s Day 1 gap price action. The HVC is also plotted so you can visualize price action against this key line of support on the days following the gap up.

In this example, I’m able to set a logical stop loss just under 2% away from my entry point. You can see how in the right environment, price action is tight and rational. We held where we needed to, and after a couple of days’ consolidation post gap, we went on a 25% run with only risking 2%.

This is the power of using technical price action to place logical stops to manage your risk.

What If You Can’t Find A Logical Area On The Day 1 Gap?

There are two ways to approach this issue:

1. You don’t trade the Day 2 setup

2. You set an arbitrary % stop based on $ at risk

The first approach is self-explanatory: if you can’t find an area to manage risk against, you don’t take the trade. I’ve started to lean more and more towards this approach as I fully adopt an abundance mindset.

Scenario 2, setting an arbitrary % stop, allows you to still partake in the action while also managing your risk. If this is the case, I always size down knowing that regular price movements can stop me out until I find a proper intraday pattern to trade against.

Selling On Strength

Alright — we’ve covered sell rules on weakness. We now know how to approach making sure our asses are covered on the downside.

Let’s now talk about the art of selling into strength and the 3 ways I approach it:

Approach #1: Selling Based on R Multiples

This is a simple guide to selling on strength — you’ll want to sell portions of your position when they reach multiples of your risk. You can also apply the same logic to fixed percent gains as well.

Here’s a cookie-cutter outline to doing so:

• Sell 1/3 at 1R or fixed % gain

• Sell 1/3 at 2R or fixed % gain

• Sell 1/3 trailing stop or fixed % gain

Typical fixed % gains can be dependent on your:

• Average winner % gain over last 10 trades

• Rigid % gain rules (5%, 10%, 20%)

The main takeaway with this scenario is that your sell rules on strength don’t have to be fancy. The main goal is to use as little thought/discretion as possible, so setting rigid rules like this allow you to build consistency in action.

You can adjust these as you get more wins under your belt and calibrate the HVC setup to your style as a trader.

Approach #2: Selling Based on Moving Averages

One of the areas I’m backtesting now is selling based on the following MAs:

• Sell 1/3 on a close below 4EMA

• Sell 1/3 on a close below 10EMA

• Sell 1/3 on a cross of 4 & 10EMA

Again, trying to keep it super simple here.

Approach #3: Combination Of The Two Above

There's an art to selling on the upswing, and it starts with knowing your personality and problems as a trader. Over the past year, I’ve begun to implement a combination of the approaches above to best fit who I am in the market.

So, my exact sell rules are the following:

• 1/3 at 5% gain

• 1/3 at 10% gain

• 1/3 on a close below the 4EMA/10EMA depending on price action.

Example #1: GPS

I followed the plan above. I sold 1/3 at 5%, 1/3 at 10%, and then the final 1/3 I closed below the 4EMA.

Knowing where I was on my recent trades (1 for 3 in terms of them working), I wasn’t willing to let this winner come back to the 10EMA. I elected to sell as price closed below the 4EMA (which was strong support) for the first time since the initial move began.

Example #2: SHOP

I followed the plan above. I sold 1/3 at 5%, 1/3 at 10%, and then the final 1/3 I closed below the 10EMA.

I was more willing to let this trade come back to the 10EMA because I was up 20% and had other names working, so account was still progressing. Then, when we undercut the 10EMA and prior volume day, I was out.

Simple as that.

Other FAQs:

• When do I move up my initial stop loss to breakeven?

I move my initial stop up when the trade has reached 1R. This does take some art though because if price doesn’t make super strong progress right out of the gate (like SHOP) it’s easy to micromanage the trade and choke it off. I have to be willing to buy back if get stopped and price closes above the HVC on that same day.

• How much should I be risking per trade?

I’m risking anywhere between 0.25%-0.5% of my account on these setups. If my recent performance is strong, I’ll open up my risk profile to 0.75% of my account. Rarely do I allow a 1% loss on these setups anymore.

• What if I’m a longer timeframe trader?

Awesome! I’ve developed the sell rules above based on my issues as a trader. 2023 was a year of drawdown for me, so I’m looking to give less back. This means I’m selling more earlier. You have to adjust your sell rules to who you are.

• What are the best moving averages to use for the HVC setup?

I use the:

• 4EMA

• 10EMA

• 20EMA

Rarely do I let a trade get to the 20EMA due to my issues stated above. So, I’ve been more aggressive with tracking and executing positions when they interact with the 4EMA or the 10EMA (given these MAs are above my average cost).

Wrapping Up

I’ve now given you everything I implement on a daily basis to trade the HVC setup. To wrap up today’s edition, I’ve collected 40+ examples that you can test these rules with by hand.

2023 Winners List:

ACLX AFRM AMD ANET ANF APP AYX BHVN BMEA BPMC CYBR DASH DDOG DKNG DRCT DUOL EXPE FTDR GDDY GLOB GPS GRMN INFA IT LAMR LDOS LMND LOGI MGNX MSTR PINS PLTR QCOM ROKU S SCS SHOP SONO SQ TGTX TMDX TWST UBER UDMY UIS YPF

Highly recommend importing them into your charting platform and going through them one by one.

That’s all for today.

Talk soon,

Greg

• LMND Chart Deep Dive

• Video walkthrough

Let’s dive in:

Analyzing LMND

There’s a lot to take in on this chart. Let’s break it down step by step:

Read more

• Reviewing Your 2023 Performance

• Key Questions For Meaningful Self-Reflection

• Setting Challenging Yet Achievable Goals For 2024

Let’s dive in:

How you approach the next 22 days will shape your performance in 2024, no questions asked. It’s not enough for the calendar to flip to January 1, and then you start your review of the year. We all have the opportunity over the next 3 weeks to hit the ground running once ‘24 starts, and here’s my plan to get there (that you should take and make your own)…

Big Idea | Review Your 2023 Performance

This year has been a rollercoaster for me in trading. I've had my share of ups and downs, and it's time to look back. Reflecting on my own journey in 2023, I realized...

• I’m capable of more than I ever thought I would be.

• Drawdowns happen to everybody, what matters is staying in the game.

• Daily commitment to studying and refining your own edge goes a long way.

• Trading psychology is really the next step for me, it has nothing to do with X’s and O’s.

The reflections go on and on…

But, the only way to get to a spot where you’re able to reflect is if you sit down and have an honest conversation with yourself.

Head to the nearest coffee shop, put your headphones on, and dig deep by…

Asking yourself the following questions to reflect on 2023:

• Question #1: What went well and what didn’t in your trading?

• Question #2: Were you happy with your progress?

• Question #3: What mistakes did you learn from?

• Question #4: What areas did you grow the most? The least?

• Question #5: What emotional factors influenced your trading this year? (Positive OR negative)

These are broad view questions created to get your mind flowing. The initial answers to these questions may change once you’ve taken a deeper look at…

Trading Specific Questions To Answer Heading Into 2024

The above questions are great to get your mind moving on self-reflection. The following questions will take you deeper into your own results, requiring in-depth analysis of your trades throughout the year:

• Question #1: What is my YTD performance? Does this meet, miss, or exceed expectations?

• Question #2: What was my biggest trade? My worst performing trade?

• Question #3: What was my best performing edge? My worst performing edge?

• Question #4: Did I consistently follow my trading plan, and if not, why?

• Question #5: What were the specific mistakes I made that when avoided next year, will have a material impact on my results?

Setting Achievable Trading Goals for 2024

And finally, after you’ve done your self reflection as well as trade performance review, the last step to set up a successful year is creating clear, achievable goals for 2024.

I’ve found that setting a % gain goal doesn’t work well, as so many things are market/environment dependent. What I’ve shifted my goal setting to look like is the following:

• Goal #1: Commit 30 Minutes Of Deep Study To The Market Per Day

• Goal #2: Only Executing On 1 Setup (HVC) Risking 0.75% Of Capital

• Goal #3: Approach New Day 1 EPs Risking Only 0.1% Of Capital

• Goal #4: Ensure Drawdowns Do Not Exceed 5% Equity

• Goal #5: Act On Your New & Improved Sell Rules

• Goal #6: Journal Your Market Thoughts Daily

• Goal #7: Review Trades Every Weekend

• Goal #8: Adhere To The 3 Strikeout Rule

• Goal #9: Never Miss A Weekend Of Prep

• Goal #10: Only Trade The Plan In Place

Define what success looks like for you, be it financial goals, improving certain skills, or expanding your trading knowledge.

I know that if I execute on every single goal I have above, 2024 will be a phenomenal year trading for me.

And remember, trading success is an individual game. What works for me may not work for you. Either way, goal setting is one of the most important projects you can complete before 2024 begins.

That’s it!

As always, thanks for reading.

Hit reply and let me know what you found most helpful this week—I’d love to hear from you!

See you next week,

Greg

Other resources I’ve created to help your trading journey:

2020 Best Charts: https://gregduncan.gumroad.com/l/wmfsd

2021 Best Charts: https://gregduncan.gumroad.com/l/2021

2022 Best Charts: https://gregduncan.gumroad.com/l/2022

Earnings Gap Up Mastery Free Email Course: https://upsideunlimited.com/earnings-gap-course

Consider Becoming A Paid Upside Unlimited Subscriber: https://upsideunlimited.com/sub

Read more

Read more

• The HVC Setup

• Key Entry/Exit Tactics

• Historical Examples Guide

• Free Email Course (taking the next step)

Let’s dive in:

Understanding the High Volume Close (HVC)

When a stock experiences a gap up in price on exceptionally high volume, it's a clear sign of institutional accumulation. This gap up, often triggered by earnings announcements or major news events, sets the stage for my favorite setup in the market, the High Volume Close (HVC).

The HVC is more than just a price point; it's the foundational piece of successful gap up trading.

Key Indicators in the HVC Setup

Our focus in the HVC setup is not just on any high volume but on the highest volume. Here's what you should be meticulously screening for:

• Highest Volume Ever (HVE): This is a clear indicator of unprecedented interest in the stock.

• Highest Volume in 1 Year (HV1): It shows the stock is garnering attention it hasn't seen in a significant timeframe.

• Highest Volume Since IPO Week (HVIPO): For relatively new stocks, this is a crucial indicator of growing institutional interest.

• Highest Volume Since Last Quarter (HVQ): This indicates a renewed interest following the company's earnings report or other news event.

But volume alone isn't enough. I look for stocks that not only experience a high volume surge but also demonstrate:

• A Strong Daily Price % Change: Anything over 10% is notable, but the higher the percent change on the day, the better.

• A Strong Daily Closing Range: We ideally want to see the stock closing at 75% or higher of its daily range on the gap day. 50% is usually the lowest end DCR that I’ll trade.

• Position Relative to Historical Highs: A gap to new highs is preferable, but a gap within 20% of prior highs is also significant. There are also instances in which trades coming out of bottoms perform incredibly well, as sentiment undergoes massive changes — quickly.

Why These Factors Matter

These criteria are not randomly chosen; they are the bedrock of identifying stocks that have the backing of big players. Institutional demand often precedes major price movements, making these stocks prime candidates for significant gains. And, there’s no more obvious sign of institutional accumulation than a massive gap up.

Let’s dive deep into some examples, as well as Entry/Exit tactics:

Entry Tactics: Timing Your Move

In the realm of HVC, timing is everything. Here’s how I determine the optimal entry point:

• The High Volume Close (HVC) as Your Entry: The closing price of the gap-up day serves as our primary entry point. This price level, marked by significant trading volume, acts as a strong indicator of institutional commitment. Entering near or at the HVC allows us to ride the momentum created by major players while also being able to effectively manage risk.

• Daily Price % Change Consideration: A strong daily price percentage change, particularly over 10%, is a green flag. It suggests a robust price movement, often backed by substantial buying interest. The higher this percentage, the stronger the momentum we give ourselves the opportunity to capture.

• Assessing the Daily Closing Range (DCR): A closing range of 75% or higher is ideal, indicating that the stock has not only risen but also retained most of its gains by the market close. A minimum DCR of 50% is our threshold, ensuring we’re engaging with stocks that have shown significant strength throughout the trading day.

Exit Tactics: Protecting Your Investment

While the HVC entry is about getting in, exit is all about risk & trade management:

• Setting a Hard Stop-Loss: I typically set a hard stop-loss at 3-5% below the HVC. This stop-loss acts as a safeguard against adverse market movements, ensuring that we limit potential losses while giving the stock enough room to fluctuate.

• End-of-Day Close Assessment: An additional exit criterion is an end-of-day close below the HVC. This tactic depends on market conditions and overall sentiment. If the stock closes below our HVC benchmark at the end of any trading day, it might signal a weakening of institutional support, prompting us to exit.

• Exiting With Gains: I have adjusted my profit sell rules over the past two years to match the following:

  • 1/3 at 1R (usually 5%)

  • 1/3 at 2R (usually 10%)

  • Let the rest run vs. the 10EMA…
    

Why These Tactics Are Crucial

These entry and exit tactics are not just about making trades for the fun of it; they're about making smart, calculated decisions. By setting precise entry & exit points BEFORE I enter the name, I’m able to control emotions while executing and living with the results.

Let’s now get into a couple of examples:

Example #1: A Textbook HVC Play

Stock: $TWLO (2020)

Scenario:

• HVC Indicator: This stock exhibited the Highest Volume Ever, signaling strong market interest.

• Price Movement: The stock gapped into new highs with a strong daily price % change.

• Daily Closing Range (DCR): It maintained a DCR of over 75%, indicating sustained buying interest throughout the day.

  

Outcome:

• The stock demonstrated a robust follow-through, surging over 165% post-HVC. This is a classic example of how a textbook HVC setup can lead to substantial gains.

Example #2: Dual Instances of Success

Stock: $UPST

First Instance:

• HVC Indicator: Displayed the Highest Volume Ever.

• Price Action: Gapped to New Highs with a strong daily price % change.

• DCR: Maintained a DCR greater than 75%.

Outcome:

• Resulted in a swift 43% move in just 2 sessions.

Second Instance:

• HVC Indicator: Exhibited the Highest Volume Since Last Quarter.

• Price Movement: Gapped near prior highs with significant daily price % change.

• DCR: Again, a DCR greater than 75%.

Outcome:

• Led to an impressive 135% move in 2.5 months.

Example #3: Consistency in Performance

Stock: $DXCM

Scenario:

• HVC Indicator: Demonstrated the Highest Volume in 1 Year.

• Price Action: Gapped into highs with a notable daily price % change.

• DCR: Exceeded 75%, reflecting strong end-of-day positioning.

Outcome:

• The stock saw immediate follow-through, yielding a 55% increase. It later found support in this area during the COVID correction, showcasing the lasting impact of a strong HVC setup.

Example #4: The Unexpected Turnaround

Stock: $BROS

Scenario:

• Unique Aspect: Here, BROS presented a variation with an HVE gap down that resolved upwards.

• HVC Indicator: Highest Volume Ever.

• DCR: Maintained a DCR above 75% despite the initial gap down.

Outcome:

• The stock didn’t just recover; it soared, achieving a 115% increase. This example highlights the versatility of the HVC strategy and its ability to adapt to different market scenarios.

Taking The Next HVC Step

Earlier this year, I spent a couple of months putting together a free email course on everything I know about finding and trading profitable HVC setups. Within this email course, you’ll take everything you’ve mastered today to the next level:

• Improved Trade Timing | 2 Entry Scenarios

• Optimized R:R | Advanced Sell Rules

• 100s Of Examples To Study From

And like I said above, it’s completely free! Sign up for that here:

Free Earnings Gap Up Course!

Other resources to study:

2020 Best Charts: https://gregduncan.gumroad.com/l/wmfsd

2021 Best Charts: https://gregduncan.gumroad.com/l/2021

2022 Best Charts: https://gregduncan.gumroad.com/l/2022

Consider Becoming A Paid Upside Unlimited Subscriber: https://upsideunlimited.com/sub

• 4 IPO names to add to your watchlists

• Tactics to trade younger names

• Previous IPO charts to study

Let’s dive in:

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IPO Names To Track

ARM

Trades a ton of dollar volume, love the action over the past 3 days. The trigger day was Monday, coming right out of an inside day setup on big volume. We’ll see how it can close the week tomorrow but this is definitely one I’ve added to my lists to track going forwards.

SYM

Traditional HVC setup triggered Wednesday after SYM traded HVE and closed right at highs post EPS. Price then holds the $50 spot to nearly the penny on Day 2, offering a great area to place risk against.

I’ll be looking to buy any dips tomorrow vs. the HVC and place my risk under $50. It’s not often we see HVE with IPOs so want to pay attention here.

SN

Seeing a lot of noise on socials about Shark Ninja, am interested to see how this plays out over next couple of weeks. Would love for it to see a major gap up on news with some crazy volume to show institutions piling into name. Overall though definitely worth tracking going forwards.

KVYO

One of main reasons I’m keeping this on my lists is I’m familiar with the service and have had good experiences with it on day job. Email marketing is here to stay and as far as I know this is the first major player in the space to go public.

Like how price is coiling, have alerts set for a move above $28.50 to check back on the chart.

I’ve been a major user of TradingView for over 3 years now and swear by it. Definitely best in class alerts, watchlist management, charting (duh), and broker integration make this app a no brainer for me.

Highly recommend checking out their Black Friday sale, up to 70% off here:

Unlock next level charting

Trading Young IPOs

When it comes to trading in the stock market, not all stocks are created equal, especially when you compare young IPOs (Initial Public Offerings) with multi-billion or trillion $ companies like Apple (AAPL), Tesla (TSLA), Amazon (AMZN), and Nvidia (NVDA). The dynamics of trading newly listed companies are distinct, and understanding these differences will save you a lot of money & headache when trading.

Key Differences in Trading Young IPOs:

• Less Liquidity: Unlike their well-established counterparts, young IPOs often have less liquidity. Prices are lower, shares traded are lower, thus a lesser amount of dollar volume comes into the stock on a regular basis.

• More Volatile Movements: Expect more dramatic swings in both directions – upside and downside. This volatility is partly due to the less predictable nature of new companies which haven’t yet established a proper liquidity/valuation profile from major institutions.

My Strategy for Trading IPOs:

When I approach young IPOs, I look for these specific signals:

• High Volume Gap Up: This is a sign that the stock is gaining positive attention from institutions and might be setting up for a strong continuation move.

• High Dollar Volume: A high dollar volume indicates significant money flow into the stock, which solidifies institutional controls over shares (which ultimately helps me manage risk better)

• A 10/10 Pattern: Usually this will be a picture perfect period of price contraction, on low volume, above uptrending short-term MAs. Check ARM above (which was a 9/10 due to lack of major volume on breakout day).

Implementing Specific Rules:

To manage risk & get long IPOs, I follow these rules:

• Position Size: I never allocate more than 10% of my portfolio to a single IPO. This limits exposure and reduces potential downside.

• Sell Rules: I apply the same sell rules as with other trades – selling in thirds at 5% and 10% profit, then holding the final third against the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (10EMA) as a trailing stop.

• Entry Triggers: My main triggers for entering a trade are either respect for whole numbers in the stock price or a HVC entry tactic.

The Bigger Picture:

While I actively look for these opportunities, I also spend a considerable amount of time just observing the IPO market. It's essential to understand how new listings are behaving, how they deal with market risks, and the overall health of the IPO market. This observation is crucial because when IPOs start to move, especially the highly speculative ones, it can signal that big money managers are risk on.

Check these IPO winners:

CRSR

PLTR

UPST

Hope this starts your Friday off on the right foot!

Greg

Other resources to study:

2020 Best Charts: https://gregduncan.gumroad.com/l/wmfsd

2021 Best Charts: https://gregduncan.gumroad.com/l/2021

2022 Best Charts: https://gregduncan.gumroad.com/l/2022

Earnings Gap Up Mastery Free Email Course: https://upsideunlimited.com/earnings-gap-course

Consider Becoming A Paid Upside Unlimited Subscriber: https://upsideunlimited.com/sub

• HVC Trade Walkthrough in GPS

• Setting Stops on HVC Trades

• Focus List For Tomorrow

Let’s dive in:

Today’s HVC Trade | GPS

In the video above, I cover:

• My trade plan on GPS (which I sent out to my Paid Upside Unlimited Subs last night)

• How to set stops trading the HVC using intraday volume (to make sure your risk is always covered)

• My main two trading names for tomorrow (using the exact same setup!)

I hope you enjoy.

The Chart | GPS

Key Characteristics:

• HV1

• 30% Price Change

• 86% Daily Closing Range

Monster accumulation which showed up again today.

The Focus For Tomorrow

YPF

Key Characteristics:

• HV1

• 39% Price Change

• 81% Daily Closing Range

Outlined key levels I’m watching in the video walkthrough above!

TGT

Key Characteristics:

• HV1

• 39% Price Change

• 83% Daily Closing Range

Outlined key levels I’m watching in the video walkthrough above!

ICYMI: I’ve created a free, 5-day educational email course that helps you learn how to spot and trade Earnings Gap Ups using the High Volume Close entry tactic. Ton of real world examples and extra free resources throughout. Check it here:

Send me the first lesson!

The Market Action

SPY closes above September highs. Impressive run up the 4EMA.

QQQ closes above July highs. Hard to be super bearish here but also know that V-shaped rallies at some point consolidate/pull back BELOW the 4EMA. Don’t want to get too heavy at this stage of the game, so my time horizons are a little shorter on new entries.

IWM holds the 4EMA pullback after the strong gap day. Now looking to run up into the 200SMA, which would make sense for multiple days of consolidation in this area before moving higher.

Situational Awareness

It’s Thanksgiving week! Market closed Thursday, half day Friday, so again not trying to be super aggressive here.

Additionally, we have NVDA after tomorrow’s close, which could be a market mover. We’ll see.

Either way, hope everything above has helped you prep for tomorrow.

Greg

Other resources to study:

2020 Best Charts: https://gregduncan.gumroad.com/l/wmfsd

2021 Best Charts: https://gregduncan.gumroad.com/l/2021

2022 Best Charts: https://gregduncan.gumroad.com/l/2022

Earnings Gap Up Mastery Free Email Course: https://upsideunlimited.com/earnings-gap-course

Consider Becoming A Paid Upside Unlimited Subscriber: https://upsideunlimited.com/sub

• Wide Watchlist (38 names)

• Key Focus List Names (4)

• Walkthrough Video

Let’s dive in:

Wide Watchlist

Here’s a list of names to keep track of this week:

AAPL AFRM AI AMD AMZN ANET ANF AVGO COIN CRWD DASH DDOG DKNG DUOL GLOB GOOG GPS GRMN LMND META MSFT NET NFLX NVDA PATH PINS PLTR ROKU SHOP SONO TGT TMDX TSLA UBER UDMY UIS WSM ZS

Situational Awareness

1. My account has made decent progress over the past two weeks, up a couple of % off of the lows.

   1. I’ve already sold majority of my positions into strength and can now sit through pullbacks in DKNG/SHOP while looking to deploy capital in other strong names like PLTR DASH ROKU etc.

   2. No need to be super aggressive, take the trades as they come. It should be obvious!

2. Thanksgiving Week (Thursday closed, Friday 1pm close)

   1. We have a holiday week upon us. Usually not the weeks to get aggressively long, but will let price dictate actions with this in mind.

3. NVDA EPS Report Tuesday AMC

   1. How NVDA trades has been a great gauge for market risk appetite. Watching to see how this responds Tuesday AMC.

I’ve just started a deep dive into my yearly performance using TraderSync. Allows me to tag specific setups, and then visualize my performance if I was to only trade those setups (along with a bunch of other cool tools…). Highly recommend checking them out, they have a Black Friday sale that’s live as well as a 7-day free trial:

Try TraderSync for free!

Key Focus List for Tomorrow

There were a couple of gaps on Friday, and I’m seeing a sector theme build out amongst my watchlists.

Let’s get to some charts:

Read more

• 10% gainers screen

• Standouts today

• Daily process

Read time: 5min

10% Gainers Screen

If you’ve been a paid member of Upside Unlimited for a while now, you know how much I rely on the 10% on the day screen to catch HVC plays.

And if you’re new — I highly recommend adding this screen into your daily routine. I’ll cover some names this scan caught today, and show you how I prep trades in these names going forwards.

Today’s Standouts

25 results, 2 major standouts. Let’s take a look at both and show how the 10% screen can be applied to trade two different setups:

Read more

• Review of IWM

• What this means going forwards

• Key focus names for tomorrow into end of week

Let’s dive in:

A Look At The IWM

So… big day today out of small caps. Highest Volume In 1 Year (HV1), price % change over 5.5% which a look back over last two years hasn’t happened once, and a closing range of 99%.

Here are some other impressive price % gains from IWM over the past 3 years, but in your studies note none are like today.

Tues, March 24th, 2020: 9.15%

Thurs, March 26th, 2020: 6.22%

Mon, April 6, 2020: 7.66%

Mon, April 18th, 2020: 6.08%

Wed, Jan 06, 2021: 4.1%

What This Means Going Forwards

It would make sense after seeing this action for small caps to follow through in the coming days/weeks. If you’ve studied any type of high volume gap up, you’ll note this type of price action + volume usually signals the start of a new trend, not the end.

And, knowing how beaten down these names have been, more aggressive capital inflows fueling higher upside moves checks out as well.

Here are some names I’m going to be tracking with less than 2B in market cap:

Read more

• Video recap of DUOL trade

• Focus list for tomorrow

Let’s dive in ↓

5min Walkthrough of DUOL Trade + Focus List

Key Focus Names For Tomorrow

STNE

Main focus for me tomorrow, HVC is the key level to watch. Was a nice Day 1 trade but didn’t have it on my lists quick enough to get positioned, still working the kinks out there!

Entry: 12.12

Exit: 11.70

Highest volume in 1 year today.

AI

Started a tiny position in this today (3.5% equity) and will add/subtract size as setup allows. No one is talking about it, and am getting the gut feel this thing can rip above the $30 spot. Moving averages starting to bunch up underneath price, RS line flipping positive as well… we’ll see.

DASH

Laid out plan for this one in the video above, but will be watching the HVC for some weakness to scoop up shares on. Love how this has been acting, there have been times over the past 4 sessions where RS was apparent if watching intraday action. Love the name as well!

DKNG

In a perfect world we rest here for 2 more sessions above the $35 level and we get a secondary add spot. Would not be surprised though to have to watch this thing move higher and wait for a good place to add over next couple of weeks.

DDOG

Would love the opportunity to get long vs. the HVC here, waiting patiently as don’t want to chase. It’s possible we get an ugly CPI reaction tomorrow and have the opportunity to scoop up on weakness.

Updated Look at My Positions

So with all of that being said here are my current positions. Ranked by size:

DUOL - 15%

DKNG - 9%

SHOP - 5%

AI - 3.5%

Nice progress today, we’ll see how we fare tomorrow.

Greg

2020 Best Charts: https://gregduncan.gumroad.com/l/wmfsd

2021 Best Charts: https://gregduncan.gumroad.com/l/2021

2022 Best Charts: https://gregduncan.gumroad.com/l/2022

Earnings Gap Up Mastery Free Email Course: https://upsideunlimited.com/earnings-gap-course

Consider Becoming A Paid Upside Unlimited Subscriber: https://upsideunlimited.com/sub

Hey y’all. Wanted to send out my initial thoughts surrounding my PUBM + AFRM trades this morning.

PUBM - currently up about 6%

AFRM - was up 4% but sold at breakeven

Continuing to execute and build a live repository of Day 1 Gap Ups:

Read more

• Today’s trade recap

• Action under the hood

• Views for tomorrow + EOW

Reminder: Starting next week, daily editions of Upside Unlimited will go back to paid. If you like this content & want to stick around, come join us and upgrade today:

Subscribe now

Let’s dive in!

Video review of recent gappers:

Also went over my losses today in DDOG + LMND, as well as gains in SHOP + DKNG.

Action Under The Hood

SPY + QQQ both feel short term exhausted, and when I couple this with the action in DDOG + RBLX + LMND (pictured below), I don’t want to be aggressive and take on a bunch of new risk.

DDOG

RBLX

LMND

Focus For Tomorrow

While I’m not planning on being aggressive, I will look to enter the following names if they can respond well to the HVC:

DDOG

Watching the $100 level, yesterday’s ORB of $99.20, and of course the HVC of $102.20.

PLTR

Looking for one more chance down to the $17.99 HVC with my stops around $17.4 (under Friday’s low).

ROKU

Love this multi-day hold above $80, will be watching this area on weakness tomorrow. If 80 breaks will be expecting a $78.05 HVC test in the coming sessions.

Final Thoughts

Overall my account is up from the lows, but today I gave back more than I wanted to with a dumb loss in LMND and no traction gained in DDOG/RBLX. Sold 1/2 at +5% of my positions in both DKNG + SHOP to ensure a higher low on the account, as well as my position in PSN for about 0.5%. Not looking to be aggressive by any means tomorrow or Friday.

Good luck!

Greg

2020 Best Charts: https://gregduncan.gumroad.com/l/wmfsd

2021 Best Charts: https://gregduncan.gumroad.com/l/2021

2022 Best Charts: https://gregduncan.gumroad.com/l/2022

Earnings Gap Up Mastery Free Email Course: https://upsideunlimited.com/earnings-gap-course

Consider Becoming A Paid Upside Unlimited Subscriber: https://upsideunlimited.com/sub

• Video Recapping DDOG trade

• Focus names for tomorrow

Reminder: Starting next week, daily editions of Upside Unlimited will go back to paid. If you like this content & want to stick around, come join us and upgrade today:

Subscribe now

Let’s dive in ↓

Video Review of my DDOG Trade

Moved this over to YouTube instead of Loom so it’s easy for y’all to watch. Let me know your thoughts in the comments & if you’d like more of these going forwards.

DDOG Chart

Key Characteristics:

• Highest Volume Ever

• 28% Price Change

• 73% Closing Range

Overall I think this is setup great to move into the $105s and beyond tomorrow. HVC is what I’m playing in addition to the position I started today. More thoughts in the video above!

Focus For Tomorrow: UPWK, DDOG, UBER

UPWK

Checked the positive EPS reports tonight and UPWK caught my eye, +28% currently. Has traded 30% of the Daily Average Volume post market, so am expecting a positive response and follow up demand as the market opens tomorrow.

Levels to watch: $14.09 prior HVC, $15 whole number

DDOG

Talked about this in video above but will be looking to play the HVC tomorrow.

UBER

Sort of like DKNG, trades at new highs on the year on big time volume today. Price change wasn’t crazy but this is a positive response to EPS, expecting follow on demand tomorrow. HVC rules apply, see AMD for a similar non-gap but HVC type setup.

Talk tomorrow,

Greg

Other resources to study:

2020 Best Charts: https://gregduncan.gumroad.com/l/wmfsd

2021 Best Charts: https://gregduncan.gumroad.com/l/2021

2022 Best Charts: https://gregduncan.gumroad.com/l/2022

Earnings Gap Up Mastery Free Email Course: https://upsideunlimited.com/earnings-gap-course

Consider Becoming A Paid Upside Unlimited Subscriber: https://upsideunlimited.com/sub

• Trade reviews

• Focus list for tomorrow

• Video review of my actions/thoughts today

By The Way: This type of edition of Upside Unlimited is usually paid. I’ve gained some new subs recently so wanted to give you all a taste of what’s behind the paywall when I’m active in the market. With that being said…upgrade and come join us!

Subscribe now

Let’s get to it:

Overall a nice consolidation day today. Definitely felt some heat early in the session with a loss on but was able to get positioned well in and hold current trades in and (which found clear support at HVC.) Closed the day only down $50 bucks or something so basically flat which is nice.

In Depth Look at My Trades Today

DKNG

Main focus coming into today’s session, highlighted in yesterday’s newsletter edition.

Entry: HVC + EPS Day High

Initial Stop: $32.75 (under $33, about 3% risk)

Position Size: 20%

Total Gain on Close: 3.33%, good for 1R

UDMY

Second focus of the day due to HVIPO signature and impressive gap closing range.

Entry: HVC

Initial Stop: $11.75 (5.75%)

Position Size: 10%

Total Loss on Position: About 0.5% Equity

Focus List For Tomorrow

PLTR

For more thoughts refer to the video walkthrough I posted down below!

LMND

More thoughts found in video below.

DASH

More thoughts found in video below.

Video Review of the Above

Video Review!

Reviewing My Trades For The Day & Focus List For Tomorrow - Watch Video

Hope this was helpful and you all had a great trading day.

Greg

Other resources to study:

2020 Best Charts: https://gregduncan.gumroad.com/l/wmfsd

2021 Best Charts: https://gregduncan.gumroad.com/l/2021

2022 Best Charts: https://gregduncan.gumroad.com/l/2022

Earnings Gap Up Mastery Free Email Course: https://upsideunlimited.com/earnings-gap-course

Consider Becoming A Paid Upside Unlimited Subscriber: https://upsideunlimited.com/sub